Tuesday, June 4, 2013

AFTERMATH OF WAR IN KOREAN PENINSULA

AFTERMATH OF WAR IN KOREAN PENINSULA

1.            Introduction.     On South Korean streets, loudspeakers blare out tunes by U.S. pop singers, teen-agers line up to buy copies of the "Hollywood" video, and U.S. pop culture staples like McDonald's and Kentucky Fried Chicken are clearly visible.
So, is it indicative of a loving relationship with the West? Reply is “Not quite”. Every once in a while, the slogan "Yankee Go Home!" still appears in various demonstrations[1]. And part of the reason security is so tight around U.S. government buildings is that, not so long ago; they were routine targets of radical student attacks. While reasons may vary, there is no denying a lingering resentment toward the United States -- one that has its roots in the Korean War. It is, however, a resentment against outside influences that is not limited to the United States, or to the Korean War. Just stop South Koreans on the street, and they will most likely say that were it not for the United States and the former Soviet Union, Korea would not be a divided peninsula. Were it not for outside powers fighting their political and ideological battles here, Korea would not have had to suffer a bloody war that pitted brother against brother -- a war that left more than a million people torn from their families and hometowns. Korea is no stranger to being a pawn to neighbouring superpowers' games[2].
2.            Throughout its more than 2,000-year history, the Korean people have survived numerous attacks by outside forces, be they the Mongols, the Chinese or, as in more recent history, the Japanese. Hardly a single historic structure, whether a palace or a gate, has not been plundered or burned at least once. But the Korean War left scars the likes of which had never been seen before. In the process of the war, battle lines moved from one end of the peninsula to the other several times. Seoul alone exchanged hands four times during the course of the war. No one remained unscathed. Koreans have had little time since then to bemoan their fate. They have been too busy rebuilding their houses, cities and economy. Today South Korea is a global player in world markets, its capital a metropolis by any standard. Politics also has changed dramatically since the war. While the United States is still Seoul's strong ally, China is also one of South Korea's biggest economic partners. Seoul also forged diplomatic ties with the former Soviet Union before its collapse. And while the North is still a communist nation, its own economic hardships have caused it to change its outlook on the world. The North seeks to forge relations with its former foe, the United States. Americans visiting the North are surprised at the friendliness and lack of hostility toward them. But even so, Koreans live every day with the knowledge that the war was never truly ended. Young Korean men on both sides of the border still go through years of mandatory military service. In South Korea, the 15th of every month is still devoted to various national defence drills[3]. And don't forget the endless inter-Korean skirmishes, from shootings along the border to North Korean submarines getting caught in the South, conducting what is thought to be espionage activities. With this brief introduction of existing situation in Korean peninsula, endeavour will be made to analyse the existing situation as an aftermath of war in subsequent paragraphs.
PART 1
3.            Overview of the Korean War
a.            Korean Peninsula - Characteristics
(1)          Topography.            The Korean Peninsula is located in the middle of the East Asia and has 1,673 km international land border out of which it shares 1,416 km with China in the North West, 19 km with Russia in the North East and Japan in the East. The Korean Peninsula along with its numerous small islands covers 219,020 sq km with an average width of about 386 km and is only about 114 km wide at its narrowest point. North Korea occupies 47399 sq miles area and South Korea has 38375 sq miles area under her control. North and South Korea share a common border along the 38th parallel, which stretches 238 km across the peninsula. [4]
(2)          The Korean Nation.           Korean people are famous for their generosity, warmth, kindness and hard work. They are descendants of the Mongols and make a homogeneous ethnic group with their own language, culture, customs and traditions. However, they differ from the Japanese and Chinese[5]. Moreover Koreans as a nation have been decider of their own fate till Japanese occupation in 1910.
b.            Pre Korean war Era.              The Korean War has its roots all the way back in 1910, when Japan annexed Korea, thus making it a Japanese colony. Prior to Japanese occupation Korea had a history as a unified and independent nation reaching back more than a thousand years.     Although in 1943, at Cairo declaration, Koreans were given hope of independence by the Allied, but the Koreans could not achieve independence even after WW II had ended.  After WWII, Korea was occupied by the US and USSR and divided along the 38th parallel in two, with the effect of creating hostility on both sides of the dividing line.  Later, US suggested that Soviet Union accept surrender of the northern half of the peninsula and US of the southern, in spite of the fact that at the Yalta Conference in 1945 the Soviet Union was promised to regain the influence it had in the East.  At the Yalta Conference it was also discussed how a joint trusteeship over Korea should be handled[6]. Thus US proposal was refused by the USSR. However, independence was still the aim for Korea.
c.            Korean war      
(1)          It was no secret at the time of the Korean War that the Soviet Union had equipped North Korean forces. But documents made public after the collapse of the U.S.S.R. have revealed the full extent of Moscow's involvement in the conflict. Among the highlights in the documents, which were kept secret for decades in Soviet files:-
(a)           Soviet leader Joseph Stalin approved North Korea's plans to invade the rival South and sent officers to help Pyongyang finalize those plans.
(b)          Soviet pilots, with their identities carefully hidden, flew missions against U.N. forces in Korea.
(c)          Soviet intelligence officers not only interrogated U.S. personnel taken prisoner during the Korean conflict, but a number of those U.S. POWs were transported to Russia -- where many were never heard from again.
(d)          According to documents uncovered by Alexandre Mansourov, a scholar of the Korean War, North Korean leader Kim Il Sung pressured both China and the Soviet Union for permission to invade South Korea. Stalin initially put off Kim's requests. But in April 1950, during a three-week visit to Moscow by Kim, Stalin approved a "move toward reunification" of the Korean peninsula by force. Kim then went by train to Beijing for a meeting with Chinese leader Mao Tse-tung -- who, according to a report by the then-Soviet ambassador to China, asked for clarification from Moscow, and then approved the plan. In a recent interview, Valentin Pak, Kim's former aide and translator, said the Kremlin was deeply involved even before war began in the Korean peninsula. "The invasion plan was devised by Soviet advisers to the North Korean army," said Pak. "The battle plan was handed to us on tracing paper. The Soviet generals and colonels drew it up, then it was translated by Korean officers on their staff."[7]
(2)          In the pre-dawn hours of 25 June 1950, North Korea sent an invasion force across the 38th parallel into South Korea. The Northern forces rapidly advanced southward against the ill-equipped defenders, taking the Southern capital Seoul three days after the invasion began. The United Nations condemned North Korea's attack. The Soviet Union, Pyongyang's mentor, was boycotting the U.N. Security Council at the time and was thus unable to veto the council's condemnation, which set up a U.N. force to help defend South Korea. The United States led the U.N. force in the so-called "police action" against North Korea. But could do little against a superior force. The U.N. forces were soon forced back to a perimeter around the southern port city of Pusan by early August
(3)          Counterattack- September-October 1950 .U.N. forces, under the command of U.S. Gen. Douglas MacArthur, landed at the port of Inchon near Seoul on 15 September  1950. The landing cut off much of the North Korean army, which was attempting to force a way into the Pusan Perimeter. U.N. forces, breaking out from Pusan and coming south from Inchon, were able to overwhelm the Northern troops in South Korea. Seoul was taken by U.N. forces on 26 September 1950. U.N. forces moved north of the 38th parallel, capturing the Northern capital Pyongyang on 19 October 1950. Despite warnings from China that it would not accept the presence of U.N. troops in North Korea, MacArthur continued to move his forces northward  with the announced intention of unifying the Korean peninsula. Some U.N. forces reached the Yalu River,the border between North Korea and China.
(4)          Chinese Advance - October 1950 - January 1951     In late October 1950, while China was issuing its warnings, a large Chinese force had already entered North Korea. U.N. forces began encountering Chinese troops at that time. On 24 November 1950, MacArthur announced what he believed would be the final offensive of the war, which he said would "restore peace and unity to Korea."The next day, a Chinese force estimated at between 130,000 and 300,000 attacked the U.N. forces -- quickly pushing them southward in a disorderly retreat. The U.N. abandoned Pyongyang on 4 December 1950.Some 20,000 U.S. Marines and Army infantry fought their way out of a Chinese encirclement at the Changjin Reservoir. The U.S. Navy evacuated tens of thousands of refugees and U.N. personnel from the ports of Hungnam and Wonsan. Communist forces invaded South Korea for the second time in the war on December 31, 1950. This was the time when Mao had pressured Stalin for Soviet military support -- in particular, air cover.
(a)           Stalin was reportedly concerned the appearance of Soviet warplanes in Korea would trigger a world war. At the same time, he apparently felt that a failure to support Mao would weaken his standing as leader of the communist bloc.
(b)          Several weeks after the Chinese offensive began, Stalin sent Soviet MiGs disguised in Chinese colors to the Chinese side of the Korean border. "We pretended we weren't there," recounted Soviet Air Force Col.-Gen. Nikolai Petukhov. "They dressed us in Chinese uniforms. We had no documents on us -- except for a small badge with Mao Tse-tung on it. However, the Soviets were restricted to flying missions only over the Yalu River area to prevent them from being captured by U.N. forces.
(c)           Up to 20,000 Soviet military personnel were estimated to have taken part in the Korean War -- although never on the front lines.
(d)          Stalin also used his involvement in the conflict to accumulate intelligence on the U.S. military. Reports from Moscow -- given to the U.S. Defence Department by the Russian government in 1992, and only made public in 1997 -- say more than 200 captured U.S. airmen were questioned by the Soviet military.
(e)          The Soviets were careful not to expose their role to their captives. In many cases, North Korean or Chinese officers asked questions posed by hidden Soviet officials. The reports indicate the Soviets were particularly interested in acquiring details about the U.S. F-86 Sabre jet, one of the most advanced fighters at the time. One of the questions still not fully answered is the issue of U.S. POWs who were reportedly taken from North Korea to the Soviet Union for further questioning. Estimates vary, but historians believe 30 to 50 U.S. captives were taken to the U.S.S.R[8]. 
(5)          Seoul was recaptured on January 4, 1951. U.N. forces stopped the Chinese-North Korean advance about 30 miles south of Seoul and began a counteroffensive by month's end.
(6)          Armistice - January 1951- July 1953.    U.N forces reoccupied Seoul in March 1951. Then, they were able to advance slightly north of the 38th parallel. In April, MacArthur (who had openly disagreed with President Truman over how to conduct the war) was relieved of his command. Truce talks began on 10 July 1951. By that time, the war had become static with neither side making any real advances. Disagreement over several issues, including the exchange of prisoners, delayed the signing of an armistice for another two years. Stalin's death in March 1953 not only brought an end to his totalitarian style of leadership, but apparently prompted an end to the Korean War. Weathersby says, "Stalin wanted to keep the war going, as long as he lived. He saw it as a drain on American resources. But it enormously increased American defence spending; it also solidified the Western alliance against the Soviet Union. His thinking was short-sighted. The new Soviet leadership made a decision to bring the war to an end. It was their first foreign policy decision[9]." Truce talks, which had broken off, resumed shortly after Stalin's death and led to a cease-fire on the Korean Peninsula on 27 July 1953. By the time the armistice was signed in 1953, U.N. casualties were estimated at more than 550,000 while North Korean and Chinese casualties were believed to be around 1.5 million.  As part of the cease-fire, both sides agreed to withdraw 2 kilometres along the final battleground and establish a demilitarised zone along the armistice line - a zone that still exists today.
PART 2
4.            Development After War
a.            Immediate Consequences[10]
(1)          North Korea's Claim to Victory.  The North Korean view, as proclaimed by the late Kim Il-Sung, looks at the end of the Korean War as surrender by the United States. Kim Il-Sung said, "In the Korean War, the U.S. imperialists suffered an ignominious military defeat for the first time in the history of the U.S.; this meant the beginning of a downward path for U.S. imperialism." North Korea gained political strength from the apparent surrender of a great superpower.
(2)          South Korea and Syngman Rhee.     Syngman Rhee was saved and retained his power through U.S. intervention in the unstable world of Korean politics. U.S. officials did not completely support Rhee, and many found him to be disagreeable, but they helped him maintain his power base. Rhee helped set the foundations for the future of South Korean politics, a shaky foundation but one that has endured.
(3)          The United States and Korean War Issues. The Korean War was the United States' first "unpopular war." Neither the public nor the military completely supported or understood the mission. It is also claimed to be America's first defeat in major battle and some feel that MacArthur should have been allowed to win the war. The uncertainty that ensued lead to McCarthyism and a tense atmosphere of intolerance and political persecution in the U.S. itself.
(4)          Effects in the West .           The consequences of the Korean War in Western Europe had much the same effects as in America. As a result of the indeterminate finale, military build-up and the arms race became the norm from the 1950s to the 1990s. Winston Churchill commented about the Korean War and its aftereffects on the West, "Korea does not really matter now. I'd never heard of the bloody place until I was seventy-four. Its importance lies in the fact that it has led to the re-arming of America."
(5)          China's Take on the Korean War.          The Chinese saw the end of the Korean War as a minor triumph. The results confirmed the strength of the Chinese forces because it seemed that no matter how hard the Americans tried, they ultimately failed to conquer Korea and encroach on Chinese territory. China's leadership in East Asia was re-confirmed by their strong performance in the Korean War.
(6)          War and The USSR.           The Korean War was a disaster for the USSR. The uncertain ending disrupted the delicate balance between the Soviet Union and the U.S. The Soviets were certain that the indecisive end would be enough for the United States to convince their Western allies to embark on a program of rearmament. Also, the Sino-Soviet relationship split as a result of the Korean War.
(7)          Japan Benefits and Security Issues.    Japan appears to be the biggest winner of the Korean War. Japan transformed from enemy to important ally in East Asian strategy. By cooperating with Western efforts and serving as a logistics base, Japan had her economic and military capabilities enhanc ed. Japan was able to negotiate a peace treaty with Occupation forces and gain back independence. The country experienced an economic boom as a result of the need for military technology. Japan became a pivotal area for United Nations concerns.
b.            Reunification.     Whole world as a community have voiced for the reestablishment of Korean unity under its own democratic government, freely chosen by Koreans themselves. A just settlement of the Korean issue is imperative to World peace and avoidance of global nuclear holocaust.     South Korean General Park Chung Heed (pioneer of present unification idea) seized power in 1961 and was selected as  president in 1963, 1967 and 1971. By this time idea of reunification of North and South gained ground. Resultantly, both the Koreas held talks in 1972 and in 1979 on peaceful unification of fatherland but no achievement could be made[11].
c.            Military Balance.          There is one field in which both South and North Korea have been keeping a balance, namely military power. However, North Korea has failed to increase its military power since the 1990s whereas the South has gradually proceeded with modernization of its military power. Analysts predicted this situation already in the 1980s  that South Korea's military power would break the military balance if the economic gap continued to grow further. Throughout the eighties, while the ROK leaped forward politically and economically, North Korea concentrated  on the military growth, a process begun in the late seventies. The total strength of North Korea's military forces is over 6,000,000 personnel. Just over a million are in the active forces, while 5 million are reserves. These numbers are enormous for any nation. In the case of North Korea, ranking 40th in population with just over 23 million citizens, they make it the most militarised state per capita on earth. Other comparative rankings include; the fifth largest army; the sixth largest air force; the sixth largest submarine force; tenth largest tank force; fourth largest artillery force; and, the second or third largest special operations force. Efforts are underway to create stockpiles in excess of 60 days of supply. The total annual costs of sustaining and improving this force has been between 20-25 percent of the nation's GNP...a remarkable investment for a nation of such limited resources.    The overall effect of the north's programs on the military balance between North and South Korea has been detrimental. Avoiding any discussion of specific areas of strength or weakness, North Korea today enjoys superiority in a number of critical battlefield functions, if U.S. forces are excluded from the balance.[12]     
d.            Restructuring on Political Front
(1)          North Korea.            After the Korean War. North Korea firstly concentrated on to resolve political disorder, they denounced the Western world including democratic countries such as the US, Great Britain, and South Korea. It also reinforced the autocracy of Kim Il-sung by systematically eliminating his political rivals. Thus creating a highly centralized system that accorded him unlimited power.
(2)          South Korea.           In 1986 millions of South Koreans demanded an end to two decades of military dictatorship, forcing the unpopular government of Chun Doo Hwan to agree to direct presidential elections. The democratic movement took a historic turn in December 1997, when Kim Dae Jung, the country's leading dissident, was elected president. With the advent of democracy, Korean workers organized what has become one of the strongest labor movements in the world. In 1996 Korean unions launched a general strike to successfully defeat a labor law that made it easier for companies to fire workers. Unions now play a key role in their country's economic restructuring. [13]
e.            Economic Growth.      Over the years, South and North Korea show the most apparent disparities in economic spheres .The Korean War ruined the country’s’ economy. As three-fifths of the cultivated land area was laid waste by bombs and mines. The rich rice fields, forests, and important mining areas were rendered unproductive.  Kim Il-sung, ruled North Korea from 1948 till his death in 1994. Until the mid-1970s, the North Korean economy outperformed both the South Korean and the Chinese economies. Its per capita income was higher than South Korea's. This situation changed after the collapse of the U.S.S.R, which was one of North Korea's major trading partners and the main source of subsidized material, and because of declining trade with China due to drastic changes in Chinese economic policy, and increasing Chinese trade with South Korea. North Korea's economy has virtually collapsed in the 1990s. For the last six to seven years the North Korean economy has further declined by an average of five percent yearly, and shrunk by one-third from its 1991 level. In 1998, North Korea's GNP per capita recorded $573, which accounts for 1/12 of that of South Korea. Last year, South Korea's export volume amounted to $225.6 billion despite the financial crisis, whereas North Korea's export volume recorded $1.66 billion, approximately 1/136 of that of South Korea[14].  South Korea became a source of cheap consumer items for the U.S, making it one of the four "Asian Tigers".          
f.              Security.    The South Korea and US adopted a security strategy that emphasized deterrence and defence. The North Korea had a large and powerful ground force, which being superior had invaded the South and was now deployed in forward positions from which they could mount, with only minimal preparation, a strong offensive. To deter North Korea required a combined defense force constantly aware of the North Korean intentions and respond to acts of North Korean provocation. US willingly accepted the proposal of deployment of her forces along the DMZ under the legitimate approval of UN. US troop levels in the South Korea have been maintained at about 37,000[15].
PART 3
5.            Existing Situation
a.             Nuclear Crisis.             Relations between the US and North Korea have deteriorated since President George W Bush labeled North Korea part of an "axis of evil" in January 2002. Tensions really started escalating in October, when the US accused North Korea of developing a secret nuclear weapons programme. Since then North Korea has restarted a mothballed nuclear power station, thrown out inspectors from the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency and pulled out of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty[16]. Chronological events leading to present tension are as under :-
(1)          In the early 1990s, North Korea reached a state of crisis following the Soviet disintegration, which deprived the country of cheap oil supplies and a key market. With his plans for a self-reliant economy in shambles, and apparently fearing a U.S. military strike, Kim Il Sung forced a confrontation with the U.S. in 1993 by building a "secret" plutonium facility that was quickly discovered by U.S. intelligence[17].
(2)          Same year, after it first agreed to sign the NPT, North Korea threatened to pull out and forced weapons inspectors to leave. The US was poised for war but months of high-stakes diplomacy including a trip to Pyongyang by former president Jimmy Carter, paid off.
(3)           In October 1994, the North agreed to freeze its nuclear program in exchange for fuel oil and 2 x light water nuclear reactors.
(4)          In August 1998, North Korea test-fired a missile that flew over Japan's main island and landed in the Pacific Ocean. The launch showed that North could strike anywhere in Japan. And US feared it could soon be in range. Following the firing, North Korea declared a self-imposed ban on further missile test launches.  
(5)          By October 2000, when US and North Korea appeared close to a missile deal and normalizing diplomatic relations. President Bush worsened the situation by calling it part of an "axis of evil" along with Iran and Iraq in jan 2002[18].
(6)          The US and its allies stopped fuel shipments, and within weeks the North sent out the inspectors, and withdrew from NPT. It blamed that the US has not kept to its side of the Agreed Framework, as the construction of the light water reactors ( due to be completed in 2003), is now years behind the schedule.
(7)           North Korea says it wants the US to guarantee its security in writing and to resume shipping oil. The US says the North must end its nuclear weapons programme. But the US government's relationship with North Korea’s leaders has changed a lot. [19]
b.            Economic Recession/Suffering[20]
(1)          South Korea.           The economic recession of 90’s has brought unprecedented economic and social distress to the South. While the average growth rate in the 30 years prior to the crisis was well above 8%, but dropped to – 5.8% in 1998. No one expected such a severe reduction. However, the current rapid economic recovery can largely be attributed to flexible macroeconomic policies, such as the low interest rate and expansionary fiscal policy, which currently stands at 5.7%.
(2)          North Korea.            The extent to which North Korea has been suffering from economic hardships is even more severe. As claimed by South, during year 2001, North Korean economy grew by 3.7 %. Although no accurate account of the number of deaths resulting from starvation is available, it is generally assumed that “since 1995, two million people of a population of 24 million have died of hunger and disease.” Malnutrition and inadequate health care are so pervasive that the government places highest emphasis on alleviating these problems, and all policy efforts are focused in this direction.
c.            Reunification.     Vietnam and German reunification may serve as the guideline for Korean settlement. However, political institution on the either side will have to accept a major sacrifice. It must not be ignored that it’s a natural unification, yet the ideological difference creates a huge void. The immense economic expansion of South Korea, coinciding with the corresponding difficulties experienced in the North, has also been no source of comfort for North Korea. Following the German reunification by means of the absorption of the socialist  East by the capitalist West, South Korea perceives as though the collapse of North Korea is a matter of time. The South even contends that the fate of North is in its hands. Furthermore, South has publicly maintained that the collapse of the North would not be in the interest of South Korea. South is open about its reluctance of assuming what it terms as the “burden” of reunification. With this consideration South Korea has started with a proactive policy and many high level visits have been exchanged.
PART 4
6.            Analysis
a.            Reunification.    Although Germany is a classical example of reunification of West and East in present day environments, yet the credit goes to the major powers and end of Cold War. To achieve Korean reunification International community, especially US, will have to be proactively involved. South Koreas concern of accepting an economically weak North Korea has to be addressed. However, it doesn’t seem to be happening in near future. Till the time the two parts do not reunite, focus should be on proactive diplomacy
b.             China’s Concern.       China’s security concern will be aggravated if South Korea succeeds in reunification and nuclear weapons of North Korea fall in their hands thus making China’s own security interests vulnerable. North Korea would become the fourth nuclear-armed nation on China’s borders, joining Russia, India, and Pakistan. Not only will this further complicate China’s relations with its neighbours and ostensible ally, and leave Beijing open to potential nuclear blackmail and coercion at a future date, but further lowers the threshold for possible nuclear weapons use in China’s backyard.
c.            Japan’s Concern.        Japan does little to help itself because (unlike Germany) it has been unable to settle the issues of the WW II on terms acceptable to its neighbours. Relations with South Korea did temporarily improve largely due to Kim Dae Jung, however Japanese insecurity and failure to forget WW II stalled the process. With North Korea her relations remain strain, mainly due to Japans close alliance with US. North Korea has already test fired a missile over the Japan and her becoming nuclear capable is terrorizing for Japan.
d.            Economic Reforms/Advancement       Important aspects given below need to be considered:-
(1)          Reconstruction.      It was observed that South was funded by international donor agencies and North was supported by China and Russia. North continued to close its doors to the West and remained ignorant of the developments. Therefore, the reconstruction progressed slowly and her desire to maintain a potent Army forced her to divert funds for reconstruction towards her defence forces. Whereas, In South reconstruction progressed smoothly due to her defence pact with US which gave her the liberty of focusing  only on improving the economy.
(2)          Economic Cooperation.   The geographical features of the Korean Peninsula are such that it forms an economically interrelated unit; the heavy mineral deposits and hydro-electric power of the industrial North complement the predominantly agricultural economy of South. With the country divided, there is no quick solution for the economic problems, unless the differences between both the parts could be reduced to initiate economic cooperation. This is an up hill task, which requires considerable efforts .
(3)          Reforestation/Agriculture.           The land laid waste after the devastating effects of war. Agriculture and reforestation were the sectors requiring immediate attention. Agriculture development went smoothly, however, soon industrialization over powered it. North Korea never considered these sectors worthy enough to put in their efforts. However, reforestation in South Korea was implemented from 1959 ,which resulted to the rehabilitation of about 97.4 % of deforested areas by 1999. Approximately 12 billion trees had been planted with several fast-growing trees for the last 31 years. And then, plantation area is estimated to cover 70% of the total forest land area. As a result, the growing stock increased to 60.3 m3 per hectare as of 1999 and annual growth reached 2 m3 per hectare.
e.            Nuclear Crisis
(1)          During recent past, world pressure over North Korea to abandon her nuclear programme increased considerably. The world community was acutely aware of aspirations of North Korea to acquire nuclear capability even prior to Iraq's nuclear program,  and since then pressure against North Korea was developing.
(2)          Although North Korea signed the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1985, it had refused to sign the IAEA accord.
(3)          The reaction of neighbouring countries, and above all Japan,  to such  a  situation  was  quite expected. At the first glance Japan takes a very clear and unambiguous stand on the Korean nuclear issue.  It supports its principal allies, i.e.  the USA  and  ROK,  in their political efforts and favours an establishment of a nuclear-free  zone  on  the  Korean Peninsula.
(4)          At the beginning of April 1993,  a delegation of the Japan Socialist party visited Pyongyang and criticized the  North Korean decision  to withdraw from the NPT.
(5)          However after the test flight of the Rodong  missile  in  the direction of  Tokyo  the Japanese government has changed some of its previous attitudes towards the nuclear  issue. Thus  it  has been announced  that Japan is going to reconsider its position on the long-term prolongation of the Non-proliferation Treaty. What may become even more serious is Japan provoked by  North Korea beginning the development of its own nuclear weapons. More over US and South Korea have enough firepower to overcome North Korea if the current crisis were to escalate, according to analysts. But the costs of war are so high that the US and its Asian allies are unlikely to choose the military option to defuse the situation. Tension can be eased if the US does not escalate it further.
(6)          Analysis by BBC[21] It is often very difficult to tell what lies behind North Korea's nuclear moves. Pyongyang and its mercurial leader Kim Jong-il act in erratic and contradictory ways. But it seems possible that North Korea has been trying to use the nuclear issue as a hard-line ploy to negotiate a non-aggression pact and improved economic aid from the US. Alternatively, the paranoid North may have decided the US intends to attack it anyway and has been readying its defenses while the US was preoccupied with Iraq.
f.              Military Balance.                      The above stated comparison indicates that  the superiority of North Korea in conventional weapons over the South is quite nominal i.e only 1.8 times while the share of military expenditures in GNP in the  North is almost 50 per cent compared to only 6.5 per cent in the South[22].  It is indicative of the fact that the military industrial complex in the South  is  far  more efficient, a fact that will become even more obvious in case of any prolonged military  conflict between the North and South. If on the other side the North plans a short war it is unclear how it can win it without having  a  classical threefold superiority  in  conventional weapons recommended for offensive operations. 
g.            North Korean  Alliance .      China and Russia are North Korea's closest allies; there sympathy for Pyongyang is fading, due to their own complex problems. This is adversely affecting the situation in North Korea, which is getting weaker and weaker economically.
h.            UN Role.     UN must adopt unbiased resolutions and the focus should be on reconciliatory steps. North Korea is suffering from economic crisis and insecurity, due to which she has embarked on an aggressive policy. Sanctions should be relaxed and efforts should be made to recover her economy. Simultaneously, both regimes should be encouraged to continue towards reunification.
i.              US Role.     The best thing for the US to do is to carry out complete withdrawal of all her forces from South Korea and let the two Koreas decide their affairs. The US military presence in South Korea is only aggravating the situation. Moreover, the  continuation of the direct US-North Korea dialogue seems to be effective instruments of bringing the North Korean leadership to desired results.  Certainly, a  promise of an  economic assistance (conditional to some political reforms)  from the USA may  be very  helpful in the negotiation process  especially, since  the North Korea now facing grave economic crunch.
j.              Peace Treaty.[23] Security agreements between North and South Korea have had a disconcerting tendency to break down within a short time, and the confidence-building that should result from implementation of these agreements has never been achieved. The Basic Agreement between North and South Korea, which took effect in 1992, provided a partial blueprint for achieving broad restructuring of security relations and a more stable order in Northeast Asia. The ROK Government has repeatedly declared its readiness to resume discussions with North Korea to advance the unfinished agenda defined in the Basic Agreement and the Denuclearisation Agreement, each of which provides much that could contribute to a peace system in the Korean peninsula. One obstacle to progress has been North Korea's insistence that a peace treaty to replace the 1953 armistice agreement should be negotiated between North Korea and the United States. The South Korean and U.S. governments have insisted that a peace treaty should be negotiated between North and South Korea. A peace system based on agreements codifying certain security arrangements would be the most feasible next step toward lasting peace in the Korean peninsula. Peace and stability could be promoted through a series of interrelated measures that would be the functional equivalent of a peace treaty. Both North and South Koreans have spoken of a "peace system" and both sides share some similar ideas about the contents of such a system. The United States also would be very much engaged in one aspect the regulation of arms and armed forces in the Korean peninsula. Furthermore, a commission similar to the South-North Joint Military Commission established in the Basic Agreement would be authorized to deal with compliance questions. This would require examination of the continued relevance of the Military Armistice Commission and the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission, as well as other arrangements established by the 1953 armistice agreement. Clearly, North Korea hopes to liquidate key elements of the armistice agreement and, hence, the agreement itself. Refusing to acquiesce to the liquidation of the 1953 agreement is the only principled position open to the ROK and the United States But this position would not be inconsistent with a South Korean effort to test North Korea's sincerity by proposing to define together a more peaceful and stable security situation.
PART 5
7.            Lessons Pertinent to Pakistan. Following lessons are pertinent to our environments:-
a.            Strong Economy.        Today’s warfare is more dependent on resilience of economic potentials rather than her defence and war making potentials. Pakistan needs to manage his economy to a level where he is not dependent upon any outside power for her sovereignty and independence. Our economy should be able to sustain minor shocks without jeopardising our autonomy.  Giant leaps made by our adversary in the fields of economy and defence potentials should be noticed with keen eye and remedial measures taken appropriately.
b.            Good Neighbourhood.         Pakistan is a country which is blessed with tremendous natural potentials. These potentials are awaiting their optimum utilization by us, but our hostile neighbour never allowed us to plan anything in order to realize our dreams. Kashmir is key to mending fences between our nations. We must apply all kind of efforts ranging from diplomatic to material to get this problem resolved for ever, so that the amount spent in maintaining huge armed forces could be spent for welfare of our masses and economic uplift.
c.            Forging Alliances.       In today’s world political manipulations play a vital role in shaping national aims and objectives. A politically isolated nation can neither survive nor they should expect anything favourable from the world. Taliban govt proves the point in discussion.  We must forge formidable, dependable, geographically viable and potent alliances that can stand with us in the hour of crisis.
d.            Balance Of Force.       Indo Pak subcontinent has suffered heavily on account of hegemoneous designs of India on one hand and Pakistan’s balancing role on the other hand. This has initiated an arms race which has now assumed nuclear dimensions. In order to deter any offensive and hegemoneous designs of our conventional adversary, we must keep our strength ready with all the might  to respond conventionally as well as unconventionally.
e.            Restructuring Our Armed Forces.       We must move towards small but mobile and highly trained forces along with an updated and effective nuclear strike capability, to ward off any threat. Because our economy cannot sustain huge def expenditures at the cost of national dev and progress.
f.              Nuclear option.             As we have seen that world community have become so particular and sensitive about nuclear issue/weapons especially in the hands of Muslim nations, therefore it is necessary for us to continue with our present nuclear stance i.e India specific. Moreover sooner or later, we may be forced to sign CTBT, thus, time available should be utilised in acquiring latest computer technology in the field.
8.            Conclusion              The analysis  of the political and strategic situation on the Korean Peninsula made earlier brings us to  the  conclusion  that after the  dissolution  of  the Soviet Union the DPRK lost a very powerful political,  economic and military support and seemed  to have chosen  a nuclear  option  to  compensate  this  loss  as a guarantee of its security. If that assumption is correct then one must unequivocally  state  that such a policy is extremely risky, highly adventurous and in fact futile.  Our analysis of  possible scenarios of future developments brings us to the only conclusion that North Korea cannot under any conditions achieve  a military victory over  South  Korea in the event of an open conflict.  But even if the DPRK-ROK conflict remains in the present latent  form it creates  an  atmosphere of a dangerous unpredictability on the Korean Peninsula and in North-East Asia  that  may  result in  a nuclear proliferation and  even a nuclear conflict. One may safely predict that if Japan, provoked  by the developments  in  North Korea, decides to go nuclear, Russia and China will react with the utmost concern.  One may express serious  doubts that such a course of events would correspond to the national interests of the USA. To prevent   such   undesirable  developments  the  concerned countries should apply more pressure on the  DPRK  leadership  but only up  to  a  certain point. However, the Korean War and the division of the peninsula may have been instigated by outsiders. But ultimately, achieving real peace on the Korean peninsula will be the responsibility of the Korean people same goes for people of South Asia.



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This post was written by: Franklin Manuel

Franklin Manuel is a professional blogger, web designer and front end web developer. Follow him on Twitter

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